Ukraine and Russia remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in the Donbas, security guarantees, and the scope of any ceasefire, with formal trilateral talks last held in February 2026 before stalling amid U.S. focus on the conflict with Iran. Ukrainian officials, including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, indicated on August 27 that direct or mediated discussions could resume in September, yet Russia has shown no confirmation and continues to insist on major concessions Kyiv has repeatedly rejected. This prolonged impasse, combined with ongoing battlefield activity and the two-month window to October 31, underpins the 96% trader consensus on “No.” Scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid breakthrough in any September meetings producing a signed agreement or an unforeseen military or diplomatic development forcing concessions before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ukraine and Russia remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in the Donbas, security guarantees, and the scope of any ceasefire, with formal trilateral talks last held in February 2026 before stalling amid U.S. focus on the conflict with Iran. Ukrainian officials, including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, indicated on August 27 that direct or mediated discussions could resume in September, yet Russia has shown no confirmation and continues to insist on major concessions Kyiv has repeatedly rejected. This prolonged impasse, combined with ongoing battlefield activity and the two-month window to October 31, underpins the 96% trader consensus on “No.” Scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid breakthrough in any September meetings producing a signed agreement or an unforeseen military or diplomatic development forcing concessions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$612Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ukraine and Russia remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in the Donbas, security guarantees, and the scope of any ceasefire, with formal trilateral talks last held in February 2026 before stalling amid U.S. focus on the conflict with Iran. Ukrainian officials, including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, indicated on August 27 that direct or mediated discussions could resume in September, yet Russia has shown no confirmation and continues to insist on major concessions Kyiv has repeatedly rejected. This prolonged impasse, combined with ongoing battlefield activity and the two-month window to October 31, underpins the 96% trader consensus on “No.” Scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid breakthrough in any September meetings producing a signed agreement or an unforeseen military or diplomatic development forcing concessions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$612Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Ukraine and Russia remain far apart on core issues including territorial control in the Donbas, security guarantees, and the scope of any ceasefire, with formal trilateral talks last held in February 2026 before stalling amid U.S. focus on the conflict with Iran. Ukrainian officials, including presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, indicated on August 27 that direct or mediated discussions could resume in September, yet Russia has shown no confirmation and continues to insist on major concessions Kyiv has repeatedly rejected. This prolonged impasse, combined with ongoing battlefield activity and the two-month window to October 31, underpins the 96% trader consensus on “No.” Scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid breakthrough in any September meetings producing a signed agreement or an unforeseen military or diplomatic development forcing concessions before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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