Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic engagement centers on framework talks that include an MOU covering nuclear limits, regional security, and related commitments. Trader pricing reflects limited signs of imminent breakdown, with the market assigning roughly 19% probability to a US withdrawal announcement by August 31 and under 1% by July 31. Key variables include the pace of upcoming negotiation rounds, any official statements on enrichment thresholds or sanctions relief, and parallel developments such as Hezbollah-Israel de-escalation or Iranian blockade measures. Historical precedent shows such processes can extend through multiple cycles before one side exits, though sudden policy shifts remain possible if core positions diverge sharply.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti annunciano il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?
Gli Stati Uniti annunciano il ritiro dai negoziati del MOU entro...?
$1,334,467 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 agosto
16%
$1,334,467 Vol.
31 agosto
$137,290 Vol.
16%
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic engagement centers on framework talks that include an MOU covering nuclear limits, regional security, and related commitments. Trader pricing reflects limited signs of imminent breakdown, with the market assigning roughly 19% probability to a US withdrawal announcement by August 31 and under 1% by July 31. Key variables include the pace of upcoming negotiation rounds, any official statements on enrichment thresholds or sanctions relief, and parallel developments such as Hezbollah-Israel de-escalation or Iranian blockade measures. Historical precedent shows such processes can extend through multiple cycles before one side exits, though sudden policy shifts remain possible if core positions diverge sharply.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
Mercato aperto: Jul 8, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,334,467Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 8, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic engagement centers on framework talks that include an MOU covering nuclear limits, regional security, and related commitments. Trader pricing reflects limited signs of imminent breakdown, with the market assigning roughly 19% probability to a US withdrawal announcement by August 31 and under 1% by July 31. Key variables include the pace of upcoming negotiation rounds, any official statements on enrichment thresholds or sanctions relief, and parallel developments such as Hezbollah-Israel de-escalation or Iranian blockade measures. Historical precedent shows such processes can extend through multiple cycles before one side exits, though sudden policy shifts remain possible if core positions diverge sharply.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
Volume
$1,334,467Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 8, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic engagement centers on framework talks that include an MOU covering nuclear limits, regional security, and related commitments. Trader pricing reflects limited signs of imminent breakdown, with the market assigning roughly 19% probability to a US withdrawal announcement by August 31 and under 1% by July 31. Key variables include the pace of upcoming negotiation rounds, any official statements on enrichment thresholds or sanctions relief, and parallel developments such as Hezbollah-Israel de-escalation or Iranian blockade measures. Historical precedent shows such processes can extend through multiple cycles before one side exits, though sudden policy shifts remain possible if core positions diverge sharply.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti