Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43% ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, with the most recent INSA and pollytix surveys showing 42% and 43%. This positioning reflects sustained strength in eastern Germany amid federal coalition challenges and voter shifts away from the CDU, which trails at 22–24%. Smaller parties hover near or below the 5% threshold, affecting seat distribution under mixed-member proportional rules. Trader consensus on the over-42% outcome at 63% aligns with this narrow band of results and limited movement in the final weeks, though turnout, minor-party performance, and any late campaign developments could still determine the final share.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSopra
63% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
Sopra
63% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43% ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, with the most recent INSA and pollytix surveys showing 42% and 43%. This positioning reflects sustained strength in eastern Germany amid federal coalition challenges and voter shifts away from the CDU, which trails at 22–24%. Smaller parties hover near or below the 5% threshold, affecting seat distribution under mixed-member proportional rules. Trader consensus on the over-42% outcome at 63% aligns with this narrow band of results and limited movement in the final weeks, though turnout, minor-party performance, and any late campaign developments could still determine the final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$8,529Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43% ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, with the most recent INSA and pollytix surveys showing 42% and 43%. This positioning reflects sustained strength in eastern Germany amid federal coalition challenges and voter shifts away from the CDU, which trails at 22–24%. Smaller parties hover near or below the 5% threshold, affecting seat distribution under mixed-member proportional rules. Trader consensus on the over-42% outcome at 63% aligns with this narrow band of results and limited movement in the final weeks, though turnout, minor-party performance, and any late campaign developments could still determine the final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$8,529Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43% ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, with the most recent INSA and pollytix surveys showing 42% and 43%. This positioning reflects sustained strength in eastern Germany amid federal coalition challenges and voter shifts away from the CDU, which trails at 22–24%. Smaller parties hover near or below the 5% threshold, affecting seat distribution under mixed-member proportional rules. Trader consensus on the over-42% outcome at 63% aligns with this narrow band of results and limited movement in the final weeks, though turnout, minor-party performance, and any late campaign developments could still determine the final share.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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