**Persistent oversupply from elevated U.S. layer flock sizes near 340–345 million birds continues to anchor trader-implied probabilities for September 2026 retail egg prices in the $2.20–$2.30 range at 38.5%.** Supply recovery after 2025 HPAI losses, combined with high hen productivity and production outpacing demand, has driven wholesale prices well below breakeven for many producers and kept retail averages near $2.19 per dozen in the latest BLS data through July. Recent declines in new HPAI detections have reinforced this balance, while feed costs and seasonal demand provide limited upward pressure. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that these dynamics are likely to sustain prices in a narrow band around recent levels absent major flock disruptions before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,20 a $2,30 38%
$2,30 a $2,40 23%
$2,40 a $2,50 15%
$2,10 a $2,20 14%
meno di $1,90
4%
$1,90 a $2,00
5%
$2,00 a $2,10
6%
$2,10 a $2,20
14%
$2,20 a $2,30
38%
$2,30 a $2,40
24%
$2,40 a $2,50
22%
$2,50 a $2,60
4%
$2,60 a $2,70
7%
≥$2,70
4%
$2,20 a $2,30 38%
$2,30 a $2,40 23%
$2,40 a $2,50 15%
$2,10 a $2,20 14%
meno di $1,90
4%
$1,90 a $2,00
5%
$2,00 a $2,10
6%
$2,10 a $2,20
14%
$2,20 a $2,30
38%
$2,30 a $2,40
24%
$2,40 a $2,50
22%
$2,50 a $2,60
4%
$2,60 a $2,70
7%
≥$2,70
4%
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The September release is presently scheduled for October 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The September release is presently scheduled for October 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent oversupply from elevated U.S. layer flock sizes near 340–345 million birds continues to anchor trader-implied probabilities for September 2026 retail egg prices in the $2.20–$2.30 range at 38.5%.** Supply recovery after 2025 HPAI losses, combined with high hen productivity and production outpacing demand, has driven wholesale prices well below breakeven for many producers and kept retail averages near $2.19 per dozen in the latest BLS data through July. Recent declines in new HPAI detections have reinforced this balance, while feed costs and seasonal demand provide limited upward pressure. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that these dynamics are likely to sustain prices in a narrow band around recent levels absent major flock disruptions before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato


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