Recent August inflation data at 1.7% month-over-month, the lowest reading in 14 months and aligned with Central Bank REM survey forecasts of 1.8% for both August and September, anchors trader expectations for the September print amid Argentina’s disinflation trajectory. Year-to-date accumulation reached 21.3% with the annual rate easing to 33.5%, reflecting sustained policy effects under President Milei including fiscal restraint and exchange-rate stability. Core inflation held steady near 1.8%, while seasonal and regulated price components showed mixed movements that introduce modest volatility. With market-implied odds nearly even between the 1.6-1.8% and 1.9-2.1% brackets, the contest hinges on whether September’s seasonal factors and any further deceleration in food or services prices push the outcome lower. The INDEC release, due around mid-October, will resolve the market.