Traders assign overwhelming probability to 70–75% turnout in Peru’s June 7 presidential runoff because first-round participation reached 73.81% while runoff voting historically declines several points amid voter fatigue. Reports from polling stations on election day noted visibly shorter lines in Lima and other urban centers compared with April, consistent with the modest drop observed in prior cycles. The close, low-enthusiasm contest between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez further discouraged mobilization among the roughly 70% of first-round voters who backed neither candidate. Only major discrepancies between preliminary tallies and final certified figures from the ONPE, or late adjustments for overseas or disputed ballots, could realistically push the outcome outside the 70–75% band.