Strong northwesterly winds and a mild air mass are the dominant controls on Wellington’s overnight minimum for September 2, keeping surface temperatures elevated through mechanical mixing and limiting radiational cooling. Current model guidance shows sustained 20–30 kt northwest flow under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with dew points near 10–12 °C and little cold-air advection expected behind the recent trough. These conditions produce a narrow forecast envelope centered on 8–12 °C, which is reflected in the near-even market-implied odds for 10 °C and 11 °C at 50 %. Lower outcomes (7–9 °C) remain plausible only if winds ease and skies clear for several hours, while higher readings (13–14 °C) would require stronger mixing or delayed clearing. Historical early-September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors the upper half of that climatological range. Updated NWP runs and MetService guidance through the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 2 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Wellington il 2 settembre?
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
10°C 0
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 set 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
-
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
-
14°C
-
15°C
49%
16°C
48%
17°C or higher
49%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
10°C 0
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 set 2026
7°C or below
$31 Vol.
-
8°C
$11 Vol.
-
9°C
$10 Vol.
-
10°C
$10 Vol.
-
11°C
$10 Vol.
-
12°C
$0 Vol.
-
13°C
$169 Vol.
-
14°C
$5 Vol.
-
15°C
$10 Vol.
49%
16°C
$10 Vol.
48%
17°C or higher
$18 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong northwesterly winds and a mild air mass are the dominant controls on Wellington’s overnight minimum for September 2, keeping surface temperatures elevated through mechanical mixing and limiting radiational cooling. Current model guidance shows sustained 20–30 kt northwest flow under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with dew points near 10–12 °C and little cold-air advection expected behind the recent trough.
These conditions produce a narrow forecast envelope centered on 8–12 °C, which is reflected in the near-even market-implied odds for 10 °C and 11 °C at 50 %. Lower outcomes (7–9 °C) remain plausible only if winds ease and skies clear for several hours, while higher readings (13–14 °C) would require stronger mixing or delayed clearing. Historical early-September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors the upper half of that climatological range. Updated NWP runs and MetService guidance through the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$285Data di fine
2 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong northwesterly winds and a mild air mass are the dominant controls on Wellington’s overnight minimum for September 2, keeping surface temperatures elevated through mechanical mixing and limiting radiational cooling. Current model guidance shows sustained 20–30 kt northwest flow under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with dew points near 10–12 °C and little cold-air advection expected behind the recent trough.
These conditions produce a narrow forecast envelope centered on 8–12 °C, which is reflected in the near-even market-implied odds for 10 °C and 11 °C at 50 %. Lower outcomes (7–9 °C) remain plausible only if winds ease and skies clear for several hours, while higher readings (13–14 °C) would require stronger mixing or delayed clearing. Historical early-September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors the upper half of that climatological range. Updated NWP runs and MetService guidance through the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$285Data di fine
2 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Strong northwesterly winds and a mild air mass are the dominant controls on Wellington’s overnight minimum for September 2, keeping surface temperatures elevated through mechanical mixing and limiting radiational cooling. Current model guidance shows sustained 20–30 kt northwest flow under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with dew points near 10–12 °C and little cold-air advection expected behind the recent trough. These conditions produce a narrow forecast envelope centered on 8–12 °C, which is reflected in the near-even market-implied odds for 10 °C and 11 °C at 50 %. Lower outcomes (7–9 °C) remain plausible only if winds ease and skies clear for several hours, while higher readings (13–14 °C) would require stronger mixing or delayed clearing. Historical early-September minima average near 8–9 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors the upper half of that climatological range. Updated NWP runs and MetService guidance through the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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