North Korea's political system has shown sustained stability under Kim Jong Un, with recent party congress proceedings and state media reinforcing his unchallenged authority over the Workers' Party, military, and state institutions. South Korean intelligence assessments through mid-2026 highlight ongoing succession preparations for his daughter rather than any immediate leadership vacuum, while public appearances and policy continuity indicate no acute internal challenges. Traders assign a 96.4% probability to his continued role through year-end because historical patterns of elite consolidation and the absence of verifiable coup indicators or health crises outweigh low-probability risks such as sudden medical events or factional shifts. Any change would require rapid, verifiable confirmation of removal before the December 31 resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKim Jong Un come leader supremo della Corea del Nord entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
Kim Jong Un come leader supremo della Corea del Nord entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$194,468 Vol.
$194,468 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$194,468 Vol.
$194,468 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.North Korea's political system has shown sustained stability under Kim Jong Un, with recent party congress proceedings and state media reinforcing his unchallenged authority over the Workers' Party, military, and state institutions. South Korean intelligence assessments through mid-2026 highlight ongoing succession preparations for his daughter rather than any immediate leadership vacuum, while public appearances and policy continuity indicate no acute internal challenges. Traders assign a 96.4% probability to his continued role through year-end because historical patterns of elite consolidation and the absence of verifiable coup indicators or health crises outweigh low-probability risks such as sudden medical events or factional shifts. Any change would require rapid, verifiable confirmation of removal before the December 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
Volume
$194,468Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.North Korea's political system has shown sustained stability under Kim Jong Un, with recent party congress proceedings and state media reinforcing his unchallenged authority over the Workers' Party, military, and state institutions. South Korean intelligence assessments through mid-2026 highlight ongoing succession preparations for his daughter rather than any immediate leadership vacuum, while public appearances and policy continuity indicate no acute internal challenges. Traders assign a 96.4% probability to his continued role through year-end because historical patterns of elite consolidation and the absence of verifiable coup indicators or health crises outweigh low-probability risks such as sudden medical events or factional shifts. Any change would require rapid, verifiable confirmation of removal before the December 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$194,468Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea's political system has shown sustained stability under Kim Jong Un, with recent party congress proceedings and state media reinforcing his unchallenged authority over the Workers' Party, military, and state institutions. South Korean intelligence assessments through mid-2026 highlight ongoing succession preparations for his daughter rather than any immediate leadership vacuum, while public appearances and policy continuity indicate no acute internal challenges. Traders assign a 96.4% probability to his continued role through year-end because historical patterns of elite consolidation and the absence of verifiable coup indicators or health crises outweigh low-probability risks such as sudden medical events or factional shifts. Any change would require rapid, verifiable confirmation of removal before the December 31 resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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