**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record. This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti membri della Camera repubblicana non correranno nel 2026?
Quanti membri della Camera repubblicana non correranno nel 2026?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.5%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Vol.
$71,889 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
<1%
32–35
6%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
1%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.5%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Vol.
$71,889 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,164 Vol.
2%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
<1%
32–35
$6,174 Vol.
6%
36–39
$8,153 Vol.
83%
40–43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record.
This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states.
Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$71,889Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record.
This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states.
Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,889Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record. This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il numero di senatori repubblicani che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà esattamente 7?
77%
Sì
Il numero di membri democratici della Camera che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà compreso tra 20 e 23 inclusi?
50%
Sì
I deputati repubblicani uscenti non vinceranno tra quattro e sei elezioni di nomina nel ciclo del 2026?
93%
Sì
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