**New congressional maps enacted in late August 2025 are the dominant driver of trader expectations for Democratic U.S. House seats in Texas.** The Republican-controlled legislature passed, and Governor Abbott signed, maps explicitly designed to target five Democratic-held districts, altering lines for representatives including Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green. This mid-decade redistricting, combined with 2024 voting patterns, has shifted several previously Democratic-leaning areas toward Republican performance. National forecasts show Democrats with an overall edge in the 2026 midterms, yet Texas-specific ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ treat most of the state’s 38 districts as solid or likely Republican, with only a handful rated competitive. Traders are pricing the highest probabilities on 11 or 12 Democratic seats—down from the roughly 13 held after 2024—reflecting the maps’ effects and limited expected net gains in South and Central Texas battlegrounds such as TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34. Lower-probability outcomes around 10 or 13–14 capture residual uncertainty over turnout swings, candidate recruitment, and any late-cycle shifts in Latino voter preferences. No other major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this positioning.