Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a minor observation outpost in the Strait of Hormuz amid the broader 2026 US-Iran conflict centered on navigation rights, transit corridors, and fees rather than territorial occupation. Recent developments include an expired June memorandum of understanding, Iranian vessel seizures near Qeshm in August, US mine-clearing operations, and Iran-Oman talks on temporary routes that Tehran insists do not reopen the strait militarily. Strikes have targeted other Iranian-held islands and coastal sites, but no operations have altered control of Hormuz itself, whose limited strategic role compared with Qeshm or Tunb reduces its priority in escalation scenarios. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term dates aligns with the absence of confirmed plans or capabilities for rapid territorial change, while ongoing diplomacy and intermittent strikes continue to shape access disputes without shifting island ownership.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Hormuz non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Hormuz non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$64,015 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 agosto
1%
$64,015 Vol.
31 agosto
$52,278 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a minor observation outpost in the Strait of Hormuz amid the broader 2026 US-Iran conflict centered on navigation rights, transit corridors, and fees rather than territorial occupation. Recent developments include an expired June memorandum of understanding, Iranian vessel seizures near Qeshm in August, US mine-clearing operations, and Iran-Oman talks on temporary routes that Tehran insists do not reopen the strait militarily. Strikes have targeted other Iranian-held islands and coastal sites, but no operations have altered control of Hormuz itself, whose limited strategic role compared with Qeshm or Tunb reduces its priority in escalation scenarios. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term dates aligns with the absence of confirmed plans or capabilities for rapid territorial change, while ongoing diplomacy and intermittent strikes continue to shape access disputes without shifting island ownership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$64,015Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a minor observation outpost in the Strait of Hormuz amid the broader 2026 US-Iran conflict centered on navigation rights, transit corridors, and fees rather than territorial occupation. Recent developments include an expired June memorandum of understanding, Iranian vessel seizures near Qeshm in August, US mine-clearing operations, and Iran-Oman talks on temporary routes that Tehran insists do not reopen the strait militarily. Strikes have targeted other Iranian-held islands and coastal sites, but no operations have altered control of Hormuz itself, whose limited strategic role compared with Qeshm or Tunb reduces its priority in escalation scenarios. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term dates aligns with the absence of confirmed plans or capabilities for rapid territorial change, while ongoing diplomacy and intermittent strikes continue to shape access disputes without shifting island ownership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,015Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a minor observation outpost in the Strait of Hormuz amid the broader 2026 US-Iran conflict centered on navigation rights, transit corridors, and fees rather than territorial occupation. Recent developments include an expired June memorandum of understanding, Iranian vessel seizures near Qeshm in August, US mine-clearing operations, and Iran-Oman talks on temporary routes that Tehran insists do not reopen the strait militarily. Strikes have targeted other Iranian-held islands and coastal sites, but no operations have altered control of Hormuz itself, whose limited strategic role compared with Qeshm or Tunb reduces its priority in escalation scenarios. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term dates aligns with the absence of confirmed plans or capabilities for rapid territorial change, while ongoing diplomacy and intermittent strikes continue to shape access disputes without shifting island ownership.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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