Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a San Francisco high near 70–73 °F on August 10, with the market’s near-even split between the 70–71 °F and 72–73 °F bins reflecting minor differences among runs. Persistent onshore flow and a shallow marine layer—cooled by coastal upwelling—limit daytime heating while variable cloud cover and fog timing introduce small uncertainty in peak readings. August climatology places normal highs around 70 °F, so the tight clustering around this value aligns with the absence of strong offshore flow or anomalous high pressure that would drive warmer outcomes. Updated model cycles and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine the exact maximum before market resolution.