**Jeddah’s coastal Red Sea location keeps peak August temperatures moderated by sea breezes and high humidity, with historical daily maxima averaging 37–38 °C and occasional peaks to 39–40 °C under clear, light-wind conditions.** As of early August 2026, short-term forecasts from major models show no heat-wave amplification or major synoptic changes for August 7, placing the expected high firmly in the 36–39 °C window. Recent observations of daytime readings near 38 °C and stable pressure patterns support the market’s heaviest concentration on 38 °C (45 % implied probability), followed by 39 °C and 37 °C. Traders are assigning only modest odds to 40 °C or higher because current guidance lacks the extreme subsidence or reduced marine influence needed for such outliers. With resolution occurring in under 24 hours, the next model runs and official Saudi meteorological updates will determine whether the distribution shifts toward the 37 °C or 39 °C outcomes.