Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show Chicago's August 19 maximum temperature likely falling in the upper 70s to low 80s, with afternoon heating modulated by variable cloud cover, residual moisture, and weak frontal boundaries that limit strong warm advection. These conditions produce closely matched market-implied odds near 50% across the 78–83°F bins, reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than a single dominant outcome. Historical August normals near 82°F provide context, yet recent cooler-than-average patterns and model consensus on modest instability support the observed trader positioning ahead of final observational data from official reporting stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Chicago il 19 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Chicago il 19 agosto?
78-79°F 26%
80-81°F 26%
76-77°F 20%
82-83°F 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 ago 2026
67°F o meno
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
7%
86°F o superiore
6%
78-79°F 26%
80-81°F 26%
76-77°F 20%
82-83°F 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
19 ago 2026
67°F o meno
$10 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
6%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$7 Vol.
26%
82-83°F
$2 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
7%
86°F o superiore
$5 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show Chicago's August 19 maximum temperature likely falling in the upper 70s to low 80s, with afternoon heating modulated by variable cloud cover, residual moisture, and weak frontal boundaries that limit strong warm advection. These conditions produce closely matched market-implied odds near 50% across the 78–83°F bins, reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than a single dominant outcome. Historical August normals near 82°F provide context, yet recent cooler-than-average patterns and model consensus on modest instability support the observed trader positioning ahead of final observational data from official reporting stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$49Data di fine
19 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show Chicago's August 19 maximum temperature likely falling in the upper 70s to low 80s, with afternoon heating modulated by variable cloud cover, residual moisture, and weak frontal boundaries that limit strong warm advection. These conditions produce closely matched market-implied odds near 50% across the 78–83°F bins, reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than a single dominant outcome. Historical August normals near 82°F provide context, yet recent cooler-than-average patterns and model consensus on modest instability support the observed trader positioning ahead of final observational data from official reporting stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$49Data di fine
19 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show Chicago's August 19 maximum temperature likely falling in the upper 70s to low 80s, with afternoon heating modulated by variable cloud cover, residual moisture, and weak frontal boundaries that limit strong warm advection. These conditions produce closely matched market-implied odds near 50% across the 78–83°F bins, reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than a single dominant outcome. Historical August normals near 82°F provide context, yet recent cooler-than-average patterns and model consensus on modest instability support the observed trader positioning ahead of final observational data from official reporting stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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