Ongoing martial law, extended by Ukraine’s parliament through October 31, 2026, bars presidential elections under the constitution and keeps Volodymyr Zelenskyy in office as the incumbent. No polls or constitutional removal processes are scheduled before year-end, and recent government reshuffles plus diplomatic outreach—including U.S. and NATO engagements—have reinforced executive continuity without triggering leadership shifts. Traders assign the 93.5% “No” probability because historical precedent and current wartime conditions support incumbency stability until martial law lifts and any vote occurs six months later. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden ceasefire or major battlefield reversal remain the primary scenarios that could still alter this consensus before December 31.