New START, the last U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear arms control treaty, expired on February 5, 2026, after Russia suspended verification measures in 2023 and the United States declined Moscow’s September 2025 proposal for a one-year informal extension of central limits. The Trump administration has prioritized negotiations for a modernized bilateral or multilateral agreement that could incorporate China and address nonstrategic warheads, with early 2026 talks occurring on the sidelines of other diplomacy in Abu Dhabi. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of a follow-on accord six months later, amid ongoing strategic competition, differing verification priorities, and the lack of scheduled high-level summits or legislative triggers that could accelerate progress before key resolution windows close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiKesepakatan Nuklir AS x Rusia oleh...?
$660,743 Vol.
September 30
1%
December 31
5%
$660,743 Vol.
September 30
1%
December 31
5%
Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.
Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.
The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.
Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.
The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...New START, the last U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear arms control treaty, expired on February 5, 2026, after Russia suspended verification measures in 2023 and the United States declined Moscow’s September 2025 proposal for a one-year informal extension of central limits. The Trump administration has prioritized negotiations for a modernized bilateral or multilateral agreement that could incorporate China and address nonstrategic warheads, with early 2026 talks occurring on the sidelines of other diplomacy in Abu Dhabi. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of a follow-on accord six months later, amid ongoing strategic competition, differing verification priorities, and the lack of scheduled high-level summits or legislative triggers that could accelerate progress before key resolution windows close.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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