Ongoing military exchanges between Ukrainian forces and Russian troops, including Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and ports through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without diplomatic breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated on July 16 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming peace talks, despite openness to eventual negotiations conditioned on territorial and security demands. Earlier 2026 trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no agreements on core issues such as borders or guarantees. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, underscoring entrenched positions and the absence of scheduled high-level talks that could alter trajectories within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui15% peluang
$2,560,040 Vol.
$2,560,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% peluang
$2,560,040 Vol.
$2,560,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military exchanges between Ukrainian forces and Russian troops, including Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and ports through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without diplomatic breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated on July 16 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming peace talks, despite openness to eventual negotiations conditioned on territorial and security demands. Earlier 2026 trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no agreements on core issues such as borders or guarantees. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, underscoring entrenched positions and the absence of scheduled high-level talks that could alter trajectories within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,560,040Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military exchanges between Ukrainian forces and Russian troops, including Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and ports through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without diplomatic breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated on July 16 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming peace talks, despite openness to eventual negotiations conditioned on territorial and security demands. Earlier 2026 trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no agreements on core issues such as borders or guarantees. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, underscoring entrenched positions and the absence of scheduled high-level talks that could alter trajectories within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,560,040Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military exchanges between Ukrainian forces and Russian troops, including Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and ports through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without diplomatic breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated on July 16 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming peace talks, despite openness to eventual negotiations conditioned on territorial and security demands. Earlier 2026 trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no agreements on core issues such as borders or guarantees. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027, underscoring entrenched positions and the absence of scheduled high-level talks that could alter trajectories within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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