**Recent polling and seat projections for Quebec’s October 5 election show the Parti Québécois leading popular vote intentions at roughly 28–30 percent, ahead of the CAQ at 23–27 percent, the Liberals at 20–24 percent, the Conservatives at 15–16 percent, and Québec solidaire near 9–10 percent.** The PQ’s francophone concentration gives it an edge in many ridings outside Montreal, yet overall support near 30 percent and a highly fragmented field produce seat forecasts that often place the party in minority territory or with only a slim path to the 64-seat majority threshold. The CAQ has narrowed the gap in late-August surveys amid voter concern over U.S. trade tensions and tariffs, boosting Premier Christine Fréchette’s standing on economic management. Liberals retain strength among anglophones and allophones on the Island of Montreal, further splitting the federalist vote and limiting any single party’s seat haul. With many ridings projected as tight two- or three-way contests and a sizable share of undecided voters, modest shifts in regional or second-choice support over the campaign’s final weeks could easily determine whether the PQ secures a majority or forms a minority government.