**No US ally appears positioned to acquire an independent nuclear capability by the end of 2026.** Established non-proliferation commitments, extended US deterrence arrangements, and NATO nuclear-sharing programs continue to shape allied security policies without prompting new national programs. Recent diplomatic activity has centered on US-Russia arms control after New START's February 2026 expiration and negotiations involving Iran, but these have not altered timelines for any ally. Discussions in countries such as South Korea or Japan remain at the level of public debate rather than active weaponization efforts. Nuclear development cycles typically span years from decision to deployment, and no official announcements, fissile-material breakthroughs, or delivery-system milestones have emerged in the past month to shift that baseline. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the short remaining window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui6% peluang
$209,398 Vol.
$209,398 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% peluang
$209,398 Vol.
$209,398 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**No US ally appears positioned to acquire an independent nuclear capability by the end of 2026.** Established non-proliferation commitments, extended US deterrence arrangements, and NATO nuclear-sharing programs continue to shape allied security policies without prompting new national programs. Recent diplomatic activity has centered on US-Russia arms control after New START's February 2026 expiration and negotiations involving Iran, but these have not altered timelines for any ally. Discussions in countries such as South Korea or Japan remain at the level of public debate rather than active weaponization efforts. Nuclear development cycles typically span years from decision to deployment, and no official announcements, fissile-material breakthroughs, or delivery-system milestones have emerged in the past month to shift that baseline. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the short remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$209,398Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**No US ally appears positioned to acquire an independent nuclear capability by the end of 2026.** Established non-proliferation commitments, extended US deterrence arrangements, and NATO nuclear-sharing programs continue to shape allied security policies without prompting new national programs. Recent diplomatic activity has centered on US-Russia arms control after New START's February 2026 expiration and negotiations involving Iran, but these have not altered timelines for any ally. Discussions in countries such as South Korea or Japan remain at the level of public debate rather than active weaponization efforts. Nuclear development cycles typically span years from decision to deployment, and no official announcements, fissile-material breakthroughs, or delivery-system milestones have emerged in the past month to shift that baseline. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the short remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$209,398Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No US ally appears positioned to acquire an independent nuclear capability by the end of 2026.** Established non-proliferation commitments, extended US deterrence arrangements, and NATO nuclear-sharing programs continue to shape allied security policies without prompting new national programs. Recent diplomatic activity has centered on US-Russia arms control after New START's February 2026 expiration and negotiations involving Iran, but these have not altered timelines for any ally. Discussions in countries such as South Korea or Japan remain at the level of public debate rather than active weaponization efforts. Nuclear development cycles typically span years from decision to deployment, and no official announcements, fissile-material breakthroughs, or delivery-system milestones have emerged in the past month to shift that baseline. Traders therefore assign high probability to the status quo holding through the short remaining window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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