**Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped. The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Edouard 33%
Cristobal 30%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
BARU
BARU
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
40%
Dolly
29%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
5%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
8%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
4%
Other
4%
Edouard 33%
Cristobal 30%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
BARU
BARU
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$162 Vol.
40%
Dolly
$86 Vol.
29%
Edouard
$222 Vol.
19%
Fay
$72 Vol.
5%
Gonzalo
$72 Vol.
4%
Hanna
$73 Vol.
5%
Isaias
$88 Vol.
5%
Josephine
$55 Vol.
5%
Kyle
$94 Vol.
4%
Leah
$59 Vol.
3%
Marco
$107 Vol.
9%
Nana
$51 Vol.
8%
Omar
$63 Vol.
9%
Paulette
$67 Vol.
10%
Rene
$63 Vol.
5%
Sally
$131 Vol.
3%
Teddy
$63 Vol.
5%
Vicky
$90 Vol.
8%
Wilfred
$118 Vol.
4%
Other
$63 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped.
The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold.
Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,801Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped.
The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold.
Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$1,801Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped. The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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