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Iklim & Sains·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

icon for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Iklim & Sains·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Edouard 33%

Dolly 11%

Paulette 10%

Marco 9%

Polymarket
BARU

Edouard 33%

Dolly 11%

Paulette 10%

Marco 9%

Polymarket
BARU

Cristobal

$162 Vol.

43%

Dolly

$86 Vol.

29%

Edouard

$222 Vol.

19%

Fay

$72 Vol.

5%

Gonzalo

$72 Vol.

4%

Hanna

$73 Vol.

5%

Isaias

$88 Vol.

5%

Josephine

$55 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$94 Vol.

4%

Leah

$59 Vol.

3%

Marco

$107 Vol.

9%

Nana

$51 Vol.

8%

Omar

$63 Vol.

9%

Paulette

$67 Vol.

10%

Rene

$63 Vol.

5%

Sally

$131 Vol.

3%

Teddy

$63 Vol.

5%

Vicky

$90 Vol.

8%

Wilfred

$118 Vol.

5%

Other

$63 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$1,801
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$1,801
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 20 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Cristobal" di 44%, diikuti oleh "Dolly" di 29%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 44¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jul 24, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?," jelajahi 20 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" adalah "Cristobal" di 44%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Dolly" di 29%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.