**Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's September 18 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 25–26°C range, with market-implied odds of 46% and 54% respectively, reflecting tight forecast spreads under stable subtropical conditions.** Clear skies and light easterly winds overnight have supported efficient radiative cooling, with hourly observations showing temperatures holding near 26°C through early morning before daytime recovery to 31–34°C. Model consensus from sources like NOAA-aligned and local Chinese meteorological services indicates minimal deviation, as moderate humidity (70–85%) and the absence of frontal systems or significant cloud cover limit further drops. The 21°C-or-below outcome at 45% appears driven by tail-risk hedging rather than current data trends. Upcoming evening observations and final official readings will resolve the 1°C spread, underscoring how small differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression separate the leading probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 18?
21°C or below 90%
24°C 20%
23°C 10%
22°C 6.8%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
90%
22°C
7%
23°C
10%
24°C
20%
25°C
-
26°C
-
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
21°C or below 90%
24°C 20%
23°C 10%
22°C 6.8%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
22°C
$41 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
10%
24°C
$25 Vol.
20%
25°C
$348 Vol.
-
26°C
$91 Vol.
-
27°C
$73 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's September 18 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 25–26°C range, with market-implied odds of 46% and 54% respectively, reflecting tight forecast spreads under stable subtropical conditions.** Clear skies and light easterly winds overnight have supported efficient radiative cooling, with hourly observations showing temperatures holding near 26°C through early morning before daytime recovery to 31–34°C. Model consensus from sources like NOAA-aligned and local Chinese meteorological services indicates minimal deviation, as moderate humidity (70–85%) and the absence of frontal systems or significant cloud cover limit further drops. The 21°C-or-below outcome at 45% appears driven by tail-risk hedging rather than current data trends. Upcoming evening observations and final official readings will resolve the 1°C spread, underscoring how small differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression separate the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$712Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's September 18 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 25–26°C range, with market-implied odds of 46% and 54% respectively, reflecting tight forecast spreads under stable subtropical conditions.** Clear skies and light easterly winds overnight have supported efficient radiative cooling, with hourly observations showing temperatures holding near 26°C through early morning before daytime recovery to 31–34°C. Model consensus from sources like NOAA-aligned and local Chinese meteorological services indicates minimal deviation, as moderate humidity (70–85%) and the absence of frontal systems or significant cloud cover limit further drops. The 21°C-or-below outcome at 45% appears driven by tail-risk hedging rather than current data trends. Upcoming evening observations and final official readings will resolve the 1°C spread, underscoring how small differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression separate the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$712Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's September 18 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 25–26°C range, with market-implied odds of 46% and 54% respectively, reflecting tight forecast spreads under stable subtropical conditions.** Clear skies and light easterly winds overnight have supported efficient radiative cooling, with hourly observations showing temperatures holding near 26°C through early morning before daytime recovery to 31–34°C. Model consensus from sources like NOAA-aligned and local Chinese meteorological services indicates minimal deviation, as moderate humidity (70–85%) and the absence of frontal systems or significant cloud cover limit further drops. The 21°C-or-below outcome at 45% appears driven by tail-risk hedging rather than current data trends. Upcoming evening observations and final official readings will resolve the 1°C spread, underscoring how small differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression separate the leading probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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