**KMA short-range forecasts currently anchor trader expectations around a 25–26°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 15, with the two outcomes holding the largest shares of market-implied probability.** Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and mostly cloudy skies limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows near or slightly above the seasonal average. Model consensus points to light winds and possible scattered showers that further moderate temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in the Seoul-Incheon corridor adds a small upward bias. Slight variations in forecast timing of cloud cover or localized sea-breeze influences create the narrow spread between 25°C and 26°C, with lower-probability tails reflecting the chance of clearer skies or stronger onshore flow. Updated KMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely drive any further market movement ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?
25°C 44%
26°C 27%
24°C 25%
23°C 2%
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
18%
25°C
44%
26°C
36%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 44%
26°C 27%
24°C 25%
23°C 2%
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$335 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$331 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$456 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$775 Vol.
2%
24°C
$2,433 Vol.
18%
25°C
$2,364 Vol.
44%
26°C
$1,305 Vol.
36%
27°C
$3,056 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$342 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**KMA short-range forecasts currently anchor trader expectations around a 25–26°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 15, with the two outcomes holding the largest shares of market-implied probability.** Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and mostly cloudy skies limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows near or slightly above the seasonal average. Model consensus points to light winds and possible scattered showers that further moderate temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in the Seoul-Incheon corridor adds a small upward bias. Slight variations in forecast timing of cloud cover or localized sea-breeze influences create the narrow spread between 25°C and 26°C, with lower-probability tails reflecting the chance of clearer skies or stronger onshore flow. Updated KMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely drive any further market movement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$12,019Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**KMA short-range forecasts currently anchor trader expectations around a 25–26°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 15, with the two outcomes holding the largest shares of market-implied probability.** Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and mostly cloudy skies limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows near or slightly above the seasonal average. Model consensus points to light winds and possible scattered showers that further moderate temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in the Seoul-Incheon corridor adds a small upward bias. Slight variations in forecast timing of cloud cover or localized sea-breeze influences create the narrow spread between 25°C and 26°C, with lower-probability tails reflecting the chance of clearer skies or stronger onshore flow. Updated KMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely drive any further market movement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,019Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...**KMA short-range forecasts currently anchor trader expectations around a 25–26°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 15, with the two outcomes holding the largest shares of market-implied probability.** Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and mostly cloudy skies limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows near or slightly above the seasonal average. Model consensus points to light winds and possible scattered showers that further moderate temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in the Seoul-Incheon corridor adds a small upward bias. Slight variations in forecast timing of cloud cover or localized sea-breeze influences create the narrow spread between 25°C and 26°C, with lower-probability tails reflecting the chance of clearer skies or stronger onshore flow. Updated KMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely drive any further market movement ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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