**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Paris on August 1, 2026, centers on the 16–17 °C range because current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models indicate an overnight minimum near 17 °C, slightly above the early-August climatological average of 14–15 °C.** A persistent warm air mass and limited nocturnal radiative cooling—driven by higher dew points, light winds, and possible residual cloud cover from the recent heat episode—have kept minimum temperatures elevated. Model consensus shows the urban heat-island effect in central Paris further moderating the low by 1–2 °C relative to rural stations. With the market-implied probability highest for 16 °C or below (54.5 %) followed closely by 17 °C (41.5 %), traders appear to be weighting the latest high-resolution guidance that places the minimum right at the boundary between these two bins. Any late-model shift toward clearer skies or drier air could push the reading below 16 °C, while continued warm advection would lock it at or above 17 °C; the next Météo-France bulletin and observational updates from Paris-Montsouris will provide the decisive data.