Recent IAEA reporting from early September 2026 confirms continued Iranian denial of inspector access to key enrichment sites damaged in 2025 and February 2026 strikes, leaving the status of roughly 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverifiable. U.S.-Iran talks under a June memorandum of understanding have produced no final agreement on stockpile dilution or resumed monitoring, while officials from both sides state that enrichment has not resumed. This combination of physical degradation, restricted oversight, and diplomatic continuity underpins trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear device by end-2026. Remaining variables include potential covert recovery of buried material or collapse of negotiations that could prompt rapid reconstitution efforts.