Recent forecasts from Météo-France, the Met Office, and BBC Weather indicate a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with daytime maxima projected near 30–32°C amid increasing cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorm risk. This shift follows several days of 35–38°C readings tied to a persistent high-pressure ridge, as an Atlantic trough introduces fresher maritime air and reduces insolation. Ensemble model runs show tight clustering around these values, with minor spread from local urban heat-island effects and exact timing of showers, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between 32°C and 33°C. Traders are weighting official agency guidance and short-range model consensus, which currently favor outcomes below the recent heatwave peaks while acknowledging residual uncertainty in convective development.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
33°C 37%
32°C 29%
34°C 17%
35°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
3%
31°C
7%
32°C
29%
33°C
41%
34°C
17%
35°C
10%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
32°C 29%
34°C 17%
35°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$11 Vol.
3%
31°C
$6 Vol.
7%
32°C
$90 Vol.
29%
33°C
$71 Vol.
41%
34°C
$0 Vol.
17%
35°C
$0 Vol.
10%
36°C
$15 Vol.
2%
37°C
$22 Vol.
2%
38°C
$22 Vol.
1%
39°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France, the Met Office, and BBC Weather indicate a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with daytime maxima projected near 30–32°C amid increasing cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorm risk. This shift follows several days of 35–38°C readings tied to a persistent high-pressure ridge, as an Atlantic trough introduces fresher maritime air and reduces insolation. Ensemble model runs show tight clustering around these values, with minor spread from local urban heat-island effects and exact timing of showers, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between 32°C and 33°C. Traders are weighting official agency guidance and short-range model consensus, which currently favor outcomes below the recent heatwave peaks while acknowledging residual uncertainty in convective development.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$277Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France, the Met Office, and BBC Weather indicate a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with daytime maxima projected near 30–32°C amid increasing cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorm risk. This shift follows several days of 35–38°C readings tied to a persistent high-pressure ridge, as an Atlantic trough introduces fresher maritime air and reduces insolation. Ensemble model runs show tight clustering around these values, with minor spread from local urban heat-island effects and exact timing of showers, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between 32°C and 33°C. Traders are weighting official agency guidance and short-range model consensus, which currently favor outcomes below the recent heatwave peaks while acknowledging residual uncertainty in convective development.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$277Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France, the Met Office, and BBC Weather indicate a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with daytime maxima projected near 30–32°C amid increasing cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorm risk. This shift follows several days of 35–38°C readings tied to a persistent high-pressure ridge, as an Atlantic trough introduces fresher maritime air and reduces insolation. Ensemble model runs show tight clustering around these values, with minor spread from local urban heat-island effects and exact timing of showers, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between 32°C and 33°C. Traders are weighting official agency guidance and short-range model consensus, which currently favor outcomes below the recent heatwave peaks while acknowledging residual uncertainty in convective development.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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