Ensemble forecasts from European meteorological centers, including ECMWF runs, currently center daily maximum temperatures in Amsterdam around 25–26°C for August 15, driven by moderating Atlantic high-pressure patterns and cooler North Sea surface temperatures that limit heat advection. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce key uncertainty, as even modest increases in insolation or shifts in northerly flow could push peaks across the 26–27°C thresholds where trader probabilities cluster tightly. Historical mid-August baselines near 21–22°C provide context, yet recent model consensus shows narrow margins sensitive to diurnal heating and precipitation timing. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?
26°C 33%
27°C 32%
25°C 18%
24°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
13%
25°C
18%
26°C
33%
27°C
32%
28°C
6%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 33%
27°C 32%
25°C 18%
24°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$362 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$322 Vol.
1%
23°C
$248 Vol.
4%
24°C
$330 Vol.
13%
25°C
$31 Vol.
18%
26°C
$28 Vol.
33%
27°C
$90 Vol.
32%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$37 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from European meteorological centers, including ECMWF runs, currently center daily maximum temperatures in Amsterdam around 25–26°C for August 15, driven by moderating Atlantic high-pressure patterns and cooler North Sea surface temperatures that limit heat advection. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce key uncertainty, as even modest increases in insolation or shifts in northerly flow could push peaks across the 26–27°C thresholds where trader probabilities cluster tightly. Historical mid-August baselines near 21–22°C provide context, yet recent model consensus shows narrow margins sensitive to diurnal heating and precipitation timing. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,474Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from European meteorological centers, including ECMWF runs, currently center daily maximum temperatures in Amsterdam around 25–26°C for August 15, driven by moderating Atlantic high-pressure patterns and cooler North Sea surface temperatures that limit heat advection. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce key uncertainty, as even modest increases in insolation or shifts in northerly flow could push peaks across the 26–27°C thresholds where trader probabilities cluster tightly. Historical mid-August baselines near 21–22°C provide context, yet recent model consensus shows narrow margins sensitive to diurnal heating and precipitation timing. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,474Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from European meteorological centers, including ECMWF runs, currently center daily maximum temperatures in Amsterdam around 25–26°C for August 15, driven by moderating Atlantic high-pressure patterns and cooler North Sea surface temperatures that limit heat advection. Variable cloud cover and scattered showers introduce key uncertainty, as even modest increases in insolation or shifts in northerly flow could push peaks across the 26–27°C thresholds where trader probabilities cluster tightly. Historical mid-August baselines near 21–22°C provide context, yet recent model consensus shows narrow margins sensitive to diurnal heating and precipitation timing. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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