Trader consensus around 19–21°C for London’s September 20 high reflects closely aligned short-range model guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF, with ensemble spreads indicating modest uncertainty in maximum temperatures. Primary drivers include the position and strength of an Atlantic ridge modulating southerly flow, subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that affect daytime heating, and recent observational data showing near-normal September baselines. Small forecast adjustments in 2-meter temperatures or timing of any weak frontal passage can shift the daily maximum across the narrow 19–21°C threshold, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in London on September 20?
Highest temperature in London on September 20?
20°C 38%
19°C 32%
21°C 27%
18°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
7%
18°C
11%
19°C
32%
20°C
38%
21°C
27%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 38%
19°C 32%
21°C 27%
18°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$384 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$2,027 Vol.
32%
20°C
$871 Vol.
38%
21°C
$667 Vol.
27%
22°C
$164 Vol.
4%
23°C
$44 Vol.
4%
24°C
$25 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 19–21°C for London’s September 20 high reflects closely aligned short-range model guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF, with ensemble spreads indicating modest uncertainty in maximum temperatures. Primary drivers include the position and strength of an Atlantic ridge modulating southerly flow, subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that affect daytime heating, and recent observational data showing near-normal September baselines. Small forecast adjustments in 2-meter temperatures or timing of any weak frontal passage can shift the daily maximum across the narrow 19–21°C threshold, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$3,990Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 19–21°C for London’s September 20 high reflects closely aligned short-range model guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF, with ensemble spreads indicating modest uncertainty in maximum temperatures. Primary drivers include the position and strength of an Atlantic ridge modulating southerly flow, subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that affect daytime heating, and recent observational data showing near-normal September baselines. Small forecast adjustments in 2-meter temperatures or timing of any weak frontal passage can shift the daily maximum across the narrow 19–21°C threshold, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,990Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 19–21°C for London’s September 20 high reflects closely aligned short-range model guidance from the Met Office and ECMWF, with ensemble spreads indicating modest uncertainty in maximum temperatures. Primary drivers include the position and strength of an Atlantic ridge modulating southerly flow, subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that affect daytime heating, and recent observational data showing near-normal September baselines. Small forecast adjustments in 2-meter temperatures or timing of any weak frontal passage can shift the daily maximum across the narrow 19–21°C threshold, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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