Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina, holds a dominant position in the October 4, 2026, election due to consistent polling leads of around 50% in first-round scenarios, roughly 33 points ahead of main challenger João Rodrigues (PSD). Recent Quaest and Neokemp surveys show his government approval near 70%, with voters citing continuity on infrastructure, sanitation, and security priorities. Mello’s party convention formalized his ticket with Adriano Silva as running mate, and he secured legislative approval for a campaign leave starting late August, allowing full focus without using state resources. Strong alignment with conservative voters and Bolsonaro family backing further consolidates support in the state. While his margin suggests a possible first-round victory, shifts could arise from undecided voters (around 16%), debate performances, or late campaign developments before the October runoff window if needed.