Recent reports indicate Lula’s campaign is inclined to skip the first televised presidential debate scheduled for August 23 on Rede Bandeirantes, citing a compressed early-campaign calendar and strategic calculations ahead of official nomination. Flávio Bolsonaro’s team has signaled it will condition its own attendance on Lula’s presence. Multiple later debates remain scheduled for September 14 and 27, still before the October 4 first round. Trader consensus at 58.5% for Lula participating in at least one pre-first-round debate reflects uncertainty over whether the incumbent will join any of these events or maintain an early absence strategy observed in prior cycles.