**The race for second place in Rio Grande do Norte’s October 4, 2026 Senate election remains tightly contested among several candidates, reflecting fragmented voter preferences and the mechanics of a two-vote system.** Incumbent Styvenson Valentim (Podemos) consistently leads first-preference polling, leaving Zenaide Maia (PSD), Rafael Motta (PDT), Samanda de Lula (PT), and Coronel Hélio (PL) clustered in the battle for the remaining seat. Late August surveys from Quaest and others show these contenders within a few points of each other behind Valentim, with undecided voters and blank/null options still exceeding 30% in many samples. Recent candidate registrations, convention formalizations in July and August, and the start of official campaigning have not produced decisive shifts. Second-preference dynamics, coalition alignments such as “Time que Cuida” and “Endireita RN,” and regional turnout patterns continue to shape positioning. High rejection rates for some names and the absence of a clear frontrunner beyond Valentim sustain the market’s close pricing for second place, with any late polling movement or turnout surge among specific blocs able to alter the ordering before election day.