Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including Iran's July strikes on vessels and the subsequent U.S. naval blockade reinstatement, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with live monitors reporting only about 15 transits daily—roughly 25% of the normal 60-ship average—and cumulative weekly volumes likely falling well below historical norms. This environment creates tight market-implied odds across bins because traders price in substantial uncertainty around near-term de-escalation or further escalation ahead of the July 27 week. Recent three-day totals as low as 73 vessels underscore volatility tied to military actions and closure declarations, while any rapid shift in conflict dynamics or safe-passage assurances could swing realized volumes materially higher or lower.