Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving elevated war-risk premiums and prompting immediate rerouting by tankers. Daily commodity ship counts fluctuated from lows near 29 to rebounds of 37–39 in late July amid partial traffic recovery, yet remain well below pre-disruption baselines. Traders assign nearly identical implied probabilities (44.5–49.0%) across the four buckets because near-term outcomes hinge on whether Saudi protection measures, Houthi restraint on non-Saudi traffic, or further escalation in the broader Iran conflict will stabilize or further compress weekly volumes. Key swing factors include any fresh attack advisories, insurance rate movements, or visible shifts in fleet routing decisions ahead of the August 3–9 observation window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया3 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
3 अगस्त के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
<180 47%
180-199 46%
220+ 45%
200-219 44%
नया
नया
9 अग, 2026
<180
47%
180-199
46%
200-219
44%
220+
45%
<180 47%
180-199 46%
220+ 45%
200-219 44%
नया
नया
9 अग, 2026
<180
$0 वॉल्यूम
47%
180-199
$0 वॉल्यूम
46%
200-219
$0 वॉल्यूम
44%
220+
$0 वॉल्यूम
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving elevated war-risk premiums and prompting immediate rerouting by tankers. Daily commodity ship counts fluctuated from lows near 29 to rebounds of 37–39 in late July amid partial traffic recovery, yet remain well below pre-disruption baselines. Traders assign nearly identical implied probabilities (44.5–49.0%) across the four buckets because near-term outcomes hinge on whether Saudi protection measures, Houthi restraint on non-Saudi traffic, or further escalation in the broader Iran conflict will stabilize or further compress weekly volumes. Key swing factors include any fresh attack advisories, insurance rate movements, or visible shifts in fleet routing decisions ahead of the August 3–9 observation window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
9 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving elevated war-risk premiums and prompting immediate rerouting by tankers. Daily commodity ship counts fluctuated from lows near 29 to rebounds of 37–39 in late July amid partial traffic recovery, yet remain well below pre-disruption baselines. Traders assign nearly identical implied probabilities (44.5–49.0%) across the four buckets because near-term outcomes hinge on whether Saudi protection measures, Houthi restraint on non-Saudi traffic, or further escalation in the broader Iran conflict will stabilize or further compress weekly volumes. Key swing factors include any fresh attack advisories, insurance rate movements, or visible shifts in fleet routing decisions ahead of the August 3–9 observation window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
9 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving elevated war-risk premiums and prompting immediate rerouting by tankers. Daily commodity ship counts fluctuated from lows near 29 to rebounds of 37–39 in late July amid partial traffic recovery, yet remain well below pre-disruption baselines. Traders assign nearly identical implied probabilities (44.5–49.0%) across the four buckets because near-term outcomes hinge on whether Saudi protection measures, Houthi restraint on non-Saudi traffic, or further escalation in the broader Iran conflict will stabilize or further compress weekly volumes. Key swing factors include any fresh attack advisories, insurance rate movements, or visible shifts in fleet routing decisions ahead of the August 3–9 observation window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न