Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains—well above consensus—lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4, 2026, as traders raised the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting above 50%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with core PCE near 3.4% in recent readings and elevated energy prices, reinforces expectations for tighter policy and caps downside yield moves. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases this week represent the key near-term catalyst that could either sustain the recent backup in yields or allow a retracement if readings confirm moderating pressures. The current 3.50-3.75% policy rate and labor-market resilience continue to anchor market-implied odds around these levels.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
30 सित, 2026
4.76% से नीचे
61%
4.73% से नीचे
61%
4.70% से नीचे
50%
4.67% से नीचे
49%
4.64% से नीचे
49%
4.61% से नीचे
50%
4.56% से नीचे
47%
4.51% से नीचे
38%
4.45% से नीचे
36%
$0.00 वॉल्यूम
4.76% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
61%
4.73% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
61%
4.70% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
50%
4.67% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
4.64% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
4.61% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
50%
4.56% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
47%
4.51% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
38%
4.45% से नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains—well above consensus—lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4, 2026, as traders raised the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting above 50%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with core PCE near 3.4% in recent readings and elevated energy prices, reinforces expectations for tighter policy and caps downside yield moves. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases this week represent the key near-term catalyst that could either sustain the recent backup in yields or allow a retracement if readings confirm moderating pressures. The current 3.50-3.75% policy rate and labor-market resilience continue to anchor market-implied odds around these levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains—well above consensus—lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4, 2026, as traders raised the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting above 50%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with core PCE near 3.4% in recent readings and elevated energy prices, reinforces expectations for tighter policy and caps downside yield moves. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases this week represent the key near-term catalyst that could either sustain the recent backup in yields or allow a retracement if readings confirm moderating pressures. The current 3.50-3.75% policy rate and labor-market resilience continue to anchor market-implied odds around these levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains—well above consensus—lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4, 2026, as traders raised the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting above 50%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with core PCE near 3.4% in recent readings and elevated energy prices, reinforces expectations for tighter policy and caps downside yield moves. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases this week represent the key near-term catalyst that could either sustain the recent backup in yields or allow a retracement if readings confirm moderating pressures. The current 3.50-3.75% policy rate and labor-market resilience continue to anchor market-implied odds around these levels.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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