The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.74% amid elevated supply pressures from record federal deficits and AI-driven corporate bond issuance, reflects sticky core inflation around 3% and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices above $80 per barrel. The Federal Reserve's patient stance, with the funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following divided votes, has reinforced market-implied odds against near-term easing, while a steeper yield curve highlights rising term premium. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, monthly CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift expectations if unemployment rises sharply. Stronger growth or sustained inflation above target would limit downside moves, whereas a clear recession signal might compress yields toward 4% or below before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$225,341 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
5%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 वॉल्यूम
3.9%
$44,197 वॉल्यूम
12%
3.8%
$41,312 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.7%
$27,383 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.6%
$5,587 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.5%
$33,052 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.0%
$917 वॉल्यूम
2%
2.0%
$564 वॉल्यूम
5%
1.0%
$40,570 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.74% amid elevated supply pressures from record federal deficits and AI-driven corporate bond issuance, reflects sticky core inflation around 3% and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices above $80 per barrel. The Federal Reserve's patient stance, with the funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following divided votes, has reinforced market-implied odds against near-term easing, while a steeper yield curve highlights rising term premium. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, monthly CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift expectations if unemployment rises sharply. Stronger growth or sustained inflation above target would limit downside moves, whereas a clear recession signal might compress yields toward 4% or below before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$225,341समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.74% amid elevated supply pressures from record federal deficits and AI-driven corporate bond issuance, reflects sticky core inflation around 3% and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices above $80 per barrel. The Federal Reserve's patient stance, with the funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following divided votes, has reinforced market-implied odds against near-term easing, while a steeper yield curve highlights rising term premium. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, monthly CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift expectations if unemployment rises sharply. Stronger growth or sustained inflation above target would limit downside moves, whereas a clear recession signal might compress yields toward 4% or below before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
वॉल्यूम
$225,341समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.74% amid elevated supply pressures from record federal deficits and AI-driven corporate bond issuance, reflects sticky core inflation around 3% and geopolitical risks supporting oil prices above $80 per barrel. The Federal Reserve's patient stance, with the funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% following divided votes, has reinforced market-implied odds against near-term easing, while a steeper yield curve highlights rising term premium. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, monthly CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift expectations if unemployment rises sharply. Stronger growth or sustained inflation above target would limit downside moves, whereas a clear recession signal might compress yields toward 4% or below before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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