Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions, particularly energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential federal funds rate hike later in 2026. The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC hold, with CME FedWatch futures now assigning roughly 66% probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end versus prior cut expectations. Traders are monitoring the June 17 FOMC decision—widely expected to leave rates unchanged—for any removal of easing bias under new leadership, alongside upcoming CPI and employment data that could reinforce or ease hawkish sentiment in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$171,810 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
जून बैठक
1%
जुलाई बैठक
6%
सितंबर बैठक
27%
अक्टूबर बैठक
36%
$171,810 वॉल्यूम
जून बैठक
$30,592 वॉल्यूम
1%
जुलाई बैठक
$2,681 वॉल्यूम
6%
सितंबर बैठक
$4,058 वॉल्यूम
27%
अक्टूबर बैठक
$3,179 वॉल्यूम
36%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions, particularly energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential federal funds rate hike later in 2026. The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC hold, with CME FedWatch futures now assigning roughly 66% probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end versus prior cut expectations. Traders are monitoring the June 17 FOMC decision—widely expected to leave rates unchanged—for any removal of easing bias under new leadership, alongside upcoming CPI and employment data that could reinforce or ease hawkish sentiment in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$171,810समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions, particularly energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential federal funds rate hike later in 2026. The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC hold, with CME FedWatch futures now assigning roughly 66% probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end versus prior cut expectations. Traders are monitoring the June 17 FOMC decision—widely expected to leave rates unchanged—for any removal of easing bias under new leadership, alongside upcoming CPI and employment data that could reinforce or ease hawkish sentiment in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$171,810समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions, particularly energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market featuring strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential federal funds rate hike later in 2026. The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC hold, with CME FedWatch futures now assigning roughly 66% probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end versus prior cut expectations. Traders are monitoring the June 17 FOMC decision—widely expected to leave rates unchanged—for any removal of easing bias under new leadership, alongside upcoming CPI and employment data that could reinforce or ease hawkish sentiment in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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