The Senate’s abbreviated September calendar and the explicit exclusion of any supplemental from the continuing resolution enacted on September 1 have left little procedural runway for a $20 billion-plus package before the September 30 deadline. The White House’s June $87.6 billion request—centered on $67 billion for Defense Department costs tied to Operation Epic Fury in Iran—has drawn bipartisan resistance, including from Senate Appropriations Democrats citing unspent prior balances and from Republicans wary of additional outlays without broader fiscal offsets. A summer war-powers resolution underscored cross-aisle skepticism, and no floor action or committee markup has advanced the measure in the intervening weeks. Traders therefore assign a 61 percent probability to “No,” reflecting both the calendar constraint and the absence of any recent catalyst sufficient to overcome entrenched opposition.