**The high probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 stems primarily from repeated Senate inaction despite multiple House passages.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, cleared the House in April 2025 (as H.R. 22) and again in February 2026 in expanded form (SAVE America Act, 218-213 vote). It has since remained stalled after referral to the Senate. Senate rules require 60 votes to advance past a filibuster. With Republicans holding a narrow majority (around 53 seats), the measure lacks the bipartisan support needed; at least one Republican has opposed cloture, and Democrats have uniformly resisted. Recent attempts to attach provisions to must-pass legislation, such as the NDAA or budget reconciliation, have not overcome these procedural barriers. Senate leadership has prioritized avoiding a government shutdown and other funding deadlines over floor consideration, with the chamber entering recess in August 2026 without a vote. These dynamics—narrow House margins, Senate supermajority requirements, and competing legislative priorities—have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability against enactment this calendar year.