Republican majorities in both chambers of the 119th Congress, combined with longstanding party discipline under President Trump, have kept the threshold for a two-thirds override vote out of reach on contested legislation. Historical patterns show successful overrides occur in only about 4 percent of cases, and recent attempts—such as January 2026 House votes on pipeline and land bills—fell short despite initial bipartisan passage margins. Traders assign a 95.1 percent implied probability to no override occurring because narrow GOP margins and White House leverage make sustained cross-aisle coalitions unlikely on most measures. Late-session developments, including war-powers disputes or appropriations fights where support holds above two-thirds after a veto message, remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before year-end adjournment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$14,891 Vol.
$14,891 Vol.
Oui
$14,891 Vol.
$14,891 Vol.
Passage of a veto override by only one Chamber of Congress shall be insufficient to cause this market to resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 25, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Passage of a veto override by only one Chamber of Congress shall be insufficient to cause this market to resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in both chambers of the 119th Congress, combined with longstanding party discipline under President Trump, have kept the threshold for a two-thirds override vote out of reach on contested legislation. Historical patterns show successful overrides occur in only about 4 percent of cases, and recent attempts—such as January 2026 House votes on pipeline and land bills—fell short despite initial bipartisan passage margins. Traders assign a 95.1 percent implied probability to no override occurring because narrow GOP margins and White House leverage make sustained cross-aisle coalitions unlikely on most measures. Late-session developments, including war-powers disputes or appropriations fights where support holds above two-thirds after a veto message, remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before year-end adjournment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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