Recent primary results have already produced seven Democratic House incumbent losses, including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, and two Texas members amid redistricting. Progressive and outsider challenges have driven these upsets, particularly through coordinated efforts in New York and generational or ideological contests elsewhere. With additional Democratic primaries still scheduled through the fall and further contested races underway in states such as California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on a final total in the 10-12 range as the most probable outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour10-12 52.3%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 7.8%
>15 3.1%
$24,657 Vol.
$24,657 Vol.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
26%
10-12
52%
13-15
8%
>15
3%
10-12 52.3%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 7.8%
>15 3.1%
$24,657 Vol.
$24,657 Vol.
<3
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$1,872 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$11,704 Vol.
26%
10-12
$5,283 Vol.
52%
13-15
$2,210 Vol.
8%
>15
$2,481 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results have already produced seven Democratic House incumbent losses, including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, and two Texas members amid redistricting. Progressive and outsider challenges have driven these upsets, particularly through coordinated efforts in New York and generational or ideological contests elsewhere. With additional Democratic primaries still scheduled through the fall and further contested races underway in states such as California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on a final total in the 10-12 range as the most probable outcome.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$24,657Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results have already produced seven Democratic House incumbent losses, including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, and two Texas members amid redistricting. Progressive and outsider challenges have driven these upsets, particularly through coordinated efforts in New York and generational or ideological contests elsewhere. With additional Democratic primaries still scheduled through the fall and further contested races underway in states such as California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on a final total in the 10-12 range as the most probable outcome.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$24,657Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent primary results have already produced seven Democratic House incumbent losses, including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, and two Texas members amid redistricting. Progressive and outsider challenges have driven these upsets, particularly through coordinated efforts in New York and generational or ideological contests elsewhere. With additional Democratic primaries still scheduled through the fall and further contested races underway in states such as California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts, trader consensus has settled on a final total in the 10-12 range as the most probable outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les titulaires républicains à la Chambre ne remporteront-ils pas entre quatre et six élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
93%
Oui
Les titulaires démocrates au Sénat remporteront-ils toutes leurs élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
96%
Oui
Les titulaires républicains au Sénat ne remporteront-ils pas exactement trois élections de nomination lors du cycle 2026 ?
78%
Oui
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