Skip to main content
icon for Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?
Politique·James Comey

Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?

icon for Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?
Politique·James Comey

Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?

$377,736 Vol.

Polymarket

$377,736 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$144,748 Vol.

11%

John Brennan

$19,756 Vol.

27%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$21,803 Vol.

19%

Adam Schiff

$16,402 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$29,064 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$9,602 Vol.

7%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,308 Vol.

32%

James Clapper

$6,726 Vol.

13%

Letitia James

$2,868 Vol.

13%

Hillary Clinton

$25,009 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,494 Vol.

2%

Loretta Lynch

$2,376 Vol.

11%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$263 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$37,596 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,789 Vol.

6%

John Kerry

$346 Vol.

3%

Pam Bondi

$1,998 Vol.

4%

Tom Homan

$39,788 Vol.

12%

Kash Patel

$530 Vol.

3%

Brandon Johnson

$3,191 Vol.

12%

Lisa Cook

$3,324 Vol.

10%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$5,658 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on arrests before 2027 centers on former intelligence officials and state-level figures facing potential federal or state scrutiny amid ongoing partisan accountability efforts. Recent enforcement surges by ICE and DOJ priorities have reinforced market focus on procedural timelines, with options like John Brennan and Letitia James drawing volume due to historical investigations into past probes and prosecutions. Low probabilities for figures such as Barack Obama reflect structural barriers including term limits and evidentiary thresholds, while closer contests highlight upcoming confirmation hearings, court rulings, and agency actions that could shift outcomes before year-end resolution. Political developments in the next four months, including any special counsel referrals or legislative oversight, remain key variables.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$377,736
Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on arrests before 2027 centers on former intelligence officials and state-level figures facing potential federal or state scrutiny amid ongoing partisan accountability efforts. Recent enforcement surges by ICE and DOJ priorities have reinforced market focus on procedural timelines, with options like John Brennan and Letitia James drawing volume due to historical investigations into past probes and prosecutions. Low probabilities for figures such as Barack Obama reflect structural barriers including term limits and evidentiary thresholds, while closer contests highlight upcoming confirmation hearings, court rulings, and agency actions that could shift outcomes before year-end resolution. Political developments in the next four months, including any special counsel referrals or legislative oversight, remain key variables.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$377,736
Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Obama arrêté avant 2027 ?

Obama arrêté avant 2027 ?

3%
Oui
icon for José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sera-t-il arrêté d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sera-t-il arrêté d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

19%
Oui
icon for Lee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?

Lee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?

9%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 24 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mahmoud Khalil » à 32%, suivi de « John Brennan » à 27%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 32¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 32% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » a généré $377.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 30, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 24 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » est « Mahmoud Khalil » à 32%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 32% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « John Brennan » à 27%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.