**Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 40%** as the next name on the official 2026 Atlantic list after Tropical Storms Arthur (June, 40 kt) and Bertha (July, 50 kt), neither of which reached the 64 kt hurricane threshold. With the season remaining unusually quiet into early August, traders see Cristobal as the most probable candidate for the first system to intensify under the Saffir-Simpson scale once conditions favor development. Dolly (28.5%) and Edouard (19%) follow because the peak months of August–September lie ahead, and a below-normal NOAA forecast (updated early August: 7–13 named storms total, 2–6 hurricanes) implies limited early activity. Recent model guidance and climatological analogs show suppressed formation through mid-August, increasing the chance that the first hurricane arrives later in the alphabetical sequence. Lower-probability names (Rene, Isaias, and beyond at 3–5% each) reflect the possibility of an even quieter period or rapid intensification of a later system, though historical patterns favor earlier names when activity finally ramps up. Upcoming NHC updates and August model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?
Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 déc. 2026
Cristobal
42%
Dolly
30%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
5%
Joséphine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
9%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
René
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
5%
Autre
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 déc. 2026
Cristobal
$162 Vol.
42%
Dolly
$86 Vol.
30%
Edouard
$222 Vol.
19%
Fay
$72 Vol.
5%
Gonzalo
$72 Vol.
4%
Hanna
$73 Vol.
5%
Isaias
$88 Vol.
5%
Joséphine
$55 Vol.
5%
Kyle
$94 Vol.
4%
Leah
$59 Vol.
3%
Marco
$107 Vol.
9%
Nana
$51 Vol.
9%
Omar
$63 Vol.
9%
Paulette
$67 Vol.
10%
René
$63 Vol.
5%
Sally
$131 Vol.
3%
Teddy
$63 Vol.
5%
Vicky
$90 Vol.
8%
Wilfred
$118 Vol.
5%
Autre
$63 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 40%** as the next name on the official 2026 Atlantic list after Tropical Storms Arthur (June, 40 kt) and Bertha (July, 50 kt), neither of which reached the 64 kt hurricane threshold. With the season remaining unusually quiet into early August, traders see Cristobal as the most probable candidate for the first system to intensify under the Saffir-Simpson scale once conditions favor development.
Dolly (28.5%) and Edouard (19%) follow because the peak months of August–September lie ahead, and a below-normal NOAA forecast (updated early August: 7–13 named storms total, 2–6 hurricanes) implies limited early activity. Recent model guidance and climatological analogs show suppressed formation through mid-August, increasing the chance that the first hurricane arrives later in the alphabetical sequence.
Lower-probability names (Rene, Isaias, and beyond at 3–5% each) reflect the possibility of an even quieter period or rapid intensification of a later system, though historical patterns favor earlier names when activity finally ramps up. Upcoming NHC updates and August model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,801Date de fin
2 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 40%** as the next name on the official 2026 Atlantic list after Tropical Storms Arthur (June, 40 kt) and Bertha (July, 50 kt), neither of which reached the 64 kt hurricane threshold. With the season remaining unusually quiet into early August, traders see Cristobal as the most probable candidate for the first system to intensify under the Saffir-Simpson scale once conditions favor development.
Dolly (28.5%) and Edouard (19%) follow because the peak months of August–September lie ahead, and a below-normal NOAA forecast (updated early August: 7–13 named storms total, 2–6 hurricanes) implies limited early activity. Recent model guidance and climatological analogs show suppressed formation through mid-August, increasing the chance that the first hurricane arrives later in the alphabetical sequence.
Lower-probability names (Rene, Isaias, and beyond at 3–5% each) reflect the possibility of an even quieter period or rapid intensification of a later system, though historical patterns favor earlier names when activity finally ramps up. Upcoming NHC updates and August model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$1,801Date de fin
2 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 40%** as the next name on the official 2026 Atlantic list after Tropical Storms Arthur (June, 40 kt) and Bertha (July, 50 kt), neither of which reached the 64 kt hurricane threshold. With the season remaining unusually quiet into early August, traders see Cristobal as the most probable candidate for the first system to intensify under the Saffir-Simpson scale once conditions favor development. Dolly (28.5%) and Edouard (19%) follow because the peak months of August–September lie ahead, and a below-normal NOAA forecast (updated early August: 7–13 named storms total, 2–6 hurricanes) implies limited early activity. Recent model guidance and climatological analogs show suppressed formation through mid-August, increasing the chance that the first hurricane arrives later in the alphabetical sequence. Lower-probability names (Rene, Isaias, and beyond at 3–5% each) reflect the possibility of an even quieter period or rapid intensification of a later system, though historical patterns favor earlier names when activity finally ramps up. Upcoming NHC updates and August model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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