Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371 billion—sharply below 2025 levels—reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Tariffs implemented since February 2025 have curbed import growth in capital and consumer goods while exports, particularly in services and energy, have expanded at a faster pace, consistent with Congressional Budget Office projections of a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2034 amid dollar depreciation and supply-chain adjustments. These dynamics underpin the market-implied 41.5% probability for an $800–900 billion annual outcome, with the 700–800 billion bucket at 29.5% capturing potential further moderation if import compression persists. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in trade policy uncertainty that could alter import demand.