President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$795,287 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,287Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,287Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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