**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains unlikely through late 2026.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China sparked initial market movement, yet technical readiness timelines, the ongoing voluntary moratorium since 1992, and emphasis on stockpile stewardship have kept probabilities low. Recent administration statements frame the move as responsive to adversary activities rather than an imminent plan, while congressional funding continues to prioritize modernization and subcritical experiments over full-yield tests. No underground test has occurred, and experts note that resuming explosive testing would require substantial new infrastructure investment unlikely to complete before year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural and diplomatic constraints.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$768,738 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
5%
$768,738 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,177 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$50,749 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains unlikely through late 2026.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China sparked initial market movement, yet technical readiness timelines, the ongoing voluntary moratorium since 1992, and emphasis on stockpile stewardship have kept probabilities low. Recent administration statements frame the move as responsive to adversary activities rather than an imminent plan, while congressional funding continues to prioritize modernization and subcritical experiments over full-yield tests. No underground test has occurred, and experts note that resuming explosive testing would require substantial new infrastructure investment unlikely to complete before year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural and diplomatic constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,738Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains unlikely through late 2026.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China sparked initial market movement, yet technical readiness timelines, the ongoing voluntary moratorium since 1992, and emphasis on stockpile stewardship have kept probabilities low. Recent administration statements frame the move as responsive to adversary activities rather than an imminent plan, while congressional funding continues to prioritize modernization and subcritical experiments over full-yield tests. No underground test has occurred, and experts note that resuming explosive testing would require substantial new infrastructure investment unlikely to complete before year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural and diplomatic constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,738Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains unlikely through late 2026.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China sparked initial market movement, yet technical readiness timelines, the ongoing voluntary moratorium since 1992, and emphasis on stockpile stewardship have kept probabilities low. Recent administration statements frame the move as responsive to adversary activities rather than an imminent plan, while congressional funding continues to prioritize modernization and subcritical experiments over full-yield tests. No underground test has occurred, and experts note that resuming explosive testing would require substantial new infrastructure investment unlikely to complete before year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural and diplomatic constraints.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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