The redrawn boundaries of Texas's 35th congressional district, implemented after the 2025 legislative process to strengthen Republican performance in South Central Texas, have positioned the open-seat November 2026 contest as competitive despite the shift. Incumbent Democrat Greg Casar opted to run in the 37th district instead, leaving Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County deputy sheriff, to face Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, following their respective May runoffs. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 57% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's underlying demographics and historical voting patterns that still provide a narrow path for Democrats even after redistricting, while Republican prospects benefit from the map changes and the broader midterm environment. No major new developments have altered the balance in recent weeks, leaving candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout among key voting blocs as primary variables ahead of the general election.