Ahsanul Hafiz, the Ontario Liberal nominee, leads trader consensus at 67% for the September 3, 2026, Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election, reflecting his strong positioning after a narrow nomination victory and the party's effort to capture the former NDP-held riding. Fatima Shaban, the New Democratic candidate, trails at 31% amid the NDP's defense of a seat vacated by the prior member's resignation. Other listed candidates, including Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun, register negligible probabilities under 1%, consistent with limited visibility in this contest. The by-election writ was issued August 5 alongside two others, with recent campaign activity focusing on local issues and candidate outreach in the Toronto riding. Historical patterns in Ontario by-elections show incumbency advantages can erode quickly when opposition parties field competitive nominees and mobilize turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAhsanul Hafiz 67%
Fatima Shaban 31%
Noor Tarun <1%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$12,437 Vol.
$12,437 Vol.
Ahsanul Hafiz
67%
Fatima Shaban
31%
Noor Tarun
1%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
Ahsanul Hafiz 67%
Fatima Shaban 31%
Noor Tarun <1%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$12,437 Vol.
$12,437 Vol.
Ahsanul Hafiz
67%
Fatima Shaban
31%
Noor Tarun
1%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ahsanul Hafiz, the Ontario Liberal nominee, leads trader consensus at 67% for the September 3, 2026, Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election, reflecting his strong positioning after a narrow nomination victory and the party's effort to capture the former NDP-held riding. Fatima Shaban, the New Democratic candidate, trails at 31% amid the NDP's defense of a seat vacated by the prior member's resignation. Other listed candidates, including Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun, register negligible probabilities under 1%, consistent with limited visibility in this contest. The by-election writ was issued August 5 alongside two others, with recent campaign activity focusing on local issues and candidate outreach in the Toronto riding. Historical patterns in Ontario by-elections show incumbency advantages can erode quickly when opposition parties field competitive nominees and mobilize turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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