Nawaf Salam, designated prime minister in January 2025 with support from 84 of 128 MPs and confirmed in office on February 8, 2025, has formed a 24-member cabinet and maintained active leadership through mid-2026. His government has focused on economic and judicial reforms, diplomatic negotiations with Israel, and international engagements including Davos and meetings with foreign leaders. Parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026 represent the primary institutional checkpoint that could alter the premiership, yet Salam's role in organizing them and the absence of major parliamentary challenges or resignation signals have anchored trader consensus around continuity. The 65% probability on "No" reflects this post-formation stability and limited near-term pressure for replacement.