Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president in January 2025 to a standard six-year term extending through 2031, placing him firmly in office past the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. As of August 2026 he remains actively engaged in U.S.-mediated talks with Israel, White House diplomacy including a July meeting with President Trump, and efforts to assert state control over arms and implement the post-ceasefire framework. These developments, combined with the absence of parliamentary moves, constitutional challenges, or reported domestic crises that would trigger early removal, underpin the 96% trader consensus on “No.” While a sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp escalation in regional conflict could theoretically alter the timeline, current political and institutional conditions show no credible path to departure before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJoseph Aoun sera président du Liban d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Joseph Aoun sera président du Liban d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Oui
4% chance
$32,324 Vol.
$32,324 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$32,324 Vol.
$32,324 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president in January 2025 to a standard six-year term extending through 2031, placing him firmly in office past the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. As of August 2026 he remains actively engaged in U.S.-mediated talks with Israel, White House diplomacy including a July meeting with President Trump, and efforts to assert state control over arms and implement the post-ceasefire framework. These developments, combined with the absence of parliamentary moves, constitutional challenges, or reported domestic crises that would trigger early removal, underpin the 96% trader consensus on “No.” While a sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp escalation in regional conflict could theoretically alter the timeline, current political and institutional conditions show no credible path to departure before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$32,324Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president in January 2025 to a standard six-year term extending through 2031, placing him firmly in office past the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. As of August 2026 he remains actively engaged in U.S.-mediated talks with Israel, White House diplomacy including a July meeting with President Trump, and efforts to assert state control over arms and implement the post-ceasefire framework. These developments, combined with the absence of parliamentary moves, constitutional challenges, or reported domestic crises that would trigger early removal, underpin the 96% trader consensus on “No.” While a sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp escalation in regional conflict could theoretically alter the timeline, current political and institutional conditions show no credible path to departure before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,324Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president in January 2025 to a standard six-year term extending through 2031, placing him firmly in office past the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. As of August 2026 he remains actively engaged in U.S.-mediated talks with Israel, White House diplomacy including a July meeting with President Trump, and efforts to assert state control over arms and implement the post-ceasefire framework. These developments, combined with the absence of parliamentary moves, constitutional challenges, or reported domestic crises that would trigger early removal, underpin the 96% trader consensus on “No.” While a sudden health event, major scandal, or sharp escalation in regional conflict could theoretically alter the timeline, current political and institutional conditions show no credible path to departure before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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