Aziz Akhannouch’s January–February 2026 decision not to seek a third term as leader of the ruling National Rally of Independents (RNI) is the dominant driver behind the 93.8% implied probability he will leave office by December 31, 2026. He was succeeded as party president by Mohamed Chaouki, removing him from contention to head any new government even if the RNI performs strongly. Parliamentary elections fixed for September 23, 2026—well inside the resolution window—will determine the next prime minister under Morocco’s constitutional process, where the king appoints the head of government from the largest party or coalition. No subsequent statements or palace interventions have reversed Akhannouch’s withdrawal from party leadership, and routine pre-election consultations among parties have focused on electoral rules rather than extending his tenure. Traders therefore treat his departure after the vote as the near-certain baseline outcome.